Before any warning systems were available, some coastal residents told the lore of a hurricane's approach. Sailors and islanders watched the skies for double moons, sundogs, and the scarlet aura of a summer sunrise. Remember the adage "Red sky at morning, sailors take warning, red sky at night, sailors delight"? Predictions of hurricanes and other catastrophes were also offered after the skies turned to night. It was once widely believed that the position and alignment of the stars and planets foretold impending hurricane tragedies.

Old-timers also monitored animal behaviors and believed some were omens of approaching storms. It's been told that shorebirds gather and livestock wander in the days preceding a hurricane. Keen observers watched the rhythm of the ocean's swells as another method of predicting incoming cyclones. But with such unreliable sources and meager communications, coastal communities stood helpless against the rapid approach of hurricanes.

Along North Carolina's barrier islands, remote villages like Ocracoke and Portsmouth were especially vulnerable. Messages between these isolated areas and the mainland were transported by boat, as direct communications were not possible. One unusual method of delivering hurricane warnings was employed in the 1940s, when small planes scanned the Outer Banks and dropped warning messages in sealed containers to the isolated residents below. After receiving the news of an approaching storm, these brave families had no time to leave their island homes, only a few hours to secure their fishing boats and prepare for high winds and raging waters.

The horrible tragedies that resulted from numerous poorly forecasted hurricanes challenged scientists to better understand these phenomena. After World War II, the steering effects of the jet stream and other mechanics of cyclone development were studied intensely. At the same time, advances in technology improved the collection of weather data and led to a better understanding of hurricanes. In 1943, the first aircraft reconnaissance flight was directed into a hurricane to gather information on wind speeds, direction, and barometric pressure. Flights of the "hurricane hunters" continue today and still provide the most accurate and timely information available to forecasters.

Today, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, is the nerve center for our nation's hurricane warning system. Technological advances over the last several decades have transformed hurricane forecasting and warning into an accurate, timely, lifesaving service. The advent of radar, computers, weather-watching satellites, television, and regional evacuation planning have improved the system dramatically. As a result, coastal residents can tune their televisions to the unfolding drama of an approaching hurricane often days before it strikes. It is evident that this early warning system has been effective in saving lives, as losses of life from modern hurricanes have shown an overall decline in the United States.

Refinements in the forecasting and warning system continue, with the addition of Doppler radar systems, supercomputer atmospheric modeling, and more advanced local planning for evacuation and recovery. But even today, the business of predicting when and where hurricanes will strike remains a tentative one. The unpredictable nature of these fast-moving storms can still leave coastal residents with very little time to evacuate vulnerable areas. Densely populated coastal beaches and remote islands like those of the Outer Banks can swell with traffic jams as vacationers and residents scramble to escape a rapidly moving storm. And even with today's advanced warning system, those who refuse to evacuate the barrier beaches could face the same perils endured by islanders one hundred years ago.